BitFuFu: My Profitability Calculator and how did I buy 30 TH/s more
Updated: Jul 2
Finally I finished my BitFuFu calculator. It had to be separated from the analysis of Scryptcube and Hashing24 contracts, because BitFuFu has a completely different pricing system and a large number of contracts: 15 types.
Today I will tell you how to buy BitFuFu contracts more profitable.
What input do I use?
In order to calculate the profitability of contracts, I need:
Current BTC price (for accurate calculations, I use the internal BitFuFu rate)
Last BTC revenue from f2pool (you can check every day in this section)
Current prices for BitFuFu contracts
How does the calculation work?
Even before working with BitFuFu, I created a database, thanks to which I can predict the revenue changing per 1 TH/s over the next 3 years.
It's no secret that the level of revenue for 1 TH/s depends on the difficulty of the network (and current miner fees per transaction). It changes on average every 13.56 days and therefore it can be difficult to calculate how much a 360-day contract will bring on the 314th day.
But not for me. Based on four scenarios of changing the difficulty of the network, I can predict what revunue will be and calculate over-all profitability of contracts.
What is a network difficulty change scenario?
On average, the difficulty of the Bitcoin network changes every 13.56 days. Usually, it grows, thereby reducing the mining profit from 1 TH/s. How much it changes every 13.56 days will affect your contract profitability.
When buying contracts for cloud mining, you need to understand that the level of profitability that is at the moment will not last long and will change.
Before writing my calculator, I analyzed the difficulty changes up to May 2017, and I got a lot of calculations on the basis of which I make assumptions about the future changes in network difficulty.
This is why I use 4 types of scenarios to assess the profitability of contrasts over their lifetime.
Very, very optimistic (0% no increase in difficulty)
My calculations for BitFuFu
First, I calculated the profitability for each contract separately. It looks like this:
To eliminate the extra variable and make calculations more accurate and independent of the bitcoin rate - I always include all electrical service charges at once, when buying contracts.
Now that we know the exact price of the contract, which will no longer change, we can predict the profitability of the contract during its time in various scenarios of changing the difficulty of the network.
A table for evaluating the profitability of all BitFuFu contracts.
It seemed to me that it is inconvenient to constantly change the choice of the contract. Then I decided to make a pivot table that would display the profitability of each contract in different scenarios at once. This is how my table appeared.
Based on this data, you can realistically assess the profitability of each contract.
The most profitable ones are highlighted in green, the least profitable in yellow, and those that are not at all interesting for investing in red.
You may ask - "Why, in the table of a Very Very Optimistic scenario, the contract 40 J/T for 90 days glows dark green with 13.86% profitability, and the same 40 J/T for 180 days with 22.24% profitability is already yellow? The profitability is higher !?"
No, it is better to buy exactly a 90-day contract with a higher capacity than a 180-day contract of less power for an equal amount.
The color represents the percentage of profit divided by the number of days to achieve that profit.
How I Make Profitable Buying Decisions on BitFuFu
During May 8, the price of bitcoin fluctuated around the $ 50,500 mark. But by 04:00 UTC on May 9, the price had risen to 54,000. The price of BitFuFu contracts does not change automatically, but requires manual changes by service administrators. Thus, if at a price of 50,500 during March 8, the profitability of the contracts was as follows:
But as soon as the price increased to $ 54,000 per bitcoin, the exchange rate for BitFuFu contracts changed, but the contract prices did not change at 04:00 UTC on May 9th.
At this point in the BitFuFu telegram group, administrator Lucky Su wrote:
And that was true. At 05:50 UTС, the price of all contracts was changed and the profitability was:
The same prices are set now, on March 10th.
But I managed to buy contracts at a low price before the increase:
BitFuFu contracts can be very profitable in a situation when the price of bitcoin rises sharply, and service administrators do not have time to change the prices for contracts.
Thus, they become much more profitable. It is at such moments that it is worth making a purchase.
I will be glad if my calculator helps you in making a decision and makes your mining more profitable.
I created a telegram group, "BitFuFu Daily Analysis and Buy Signals" where every day I will post data on the current contract profitability and buy signals. Be sure to subscribe and follow the profitability analyzes that will be released daily!